UNICEF published The State of the World’s Children 2024: The Future of Childhood in a Changing World (November 2024), which examines three powerful, long-term global forces – megatrends – that will profoundly affect children’s lives between now and 2050: demographic shifts, climate and environmental crises, and frontier technologies.
Human Level’s Take:
- What will the state of the world be for children in 2050? UNICEF’s report delves into three megatrends - demographic shifts, the climate and environmental crises, and frontier technologies, including artificial intelligence (AI) - and how they will significantly shape the world that children will live in.
- For instance, some regions will see a growth in their working age populations, which will impact their economic growth and the amount of resources that could be freed to support children. In addition, technologies, like artificial intelligence, can provide many benefits and opportunities for children, such as enabling them to learn and connect with friends. At the same time, they can expose children to online risks, including sexual exploitation and abuse. Furthermore, the escalating climate and environmental crises will expose significantly more children to high risk climate and environmental hazards.
- The report highlights the interconnections between climate change, environmental damage and human rights. Nearly half of the world’s children (about 1 billion) already live in countries at high risk of climate and environmental hazards, and exposure to extreme heatwaves is projected to rise eightfold. These hazards impact children uniquely, as air pollution and water contamination exacerbate respiratory illnesses and waterborne diseases, with the latter being a major cause of mortality in children under five. Additionally, climate-related disasters increase feelings of helplessness, trauma, and anxiety in children.
- So what can companies do? Businesses can act now by investing in strong climate mitigation and adaptation and mitigation, ensuring children’s rights and needs are central to these efforts. They can also develop and adopt ethical guidelines for technology, focusing on privacy, data protection, and accountability. Furthermore, they can implement rights-based governance frameworks for new technologies, including oversight mechanisms to anticipate and mitigate risks.
Some key takeaways:
- Three megatrends shaping children’s futures: The report delves into how demographic shifts, the climate and environmental crises, and frontier technologies will impact children’s lives going forwards. For instance, demographic shifts can create opportunities and challenges for children. The global child population is projected to stabilise at around 2.3 billion by the 2050s, but there will be significant regional differences. While the share of children is expected to fall below 40% in Africa, it will fall below 19% in East Asia, Western Europe, North America and various high-income countries, including Australia, the Republic of South Korea and Singapore. Regions that experience a growth in their working age populations may see a potential boost to economic growth. And with fewer young dependents relative to workers, more resources could be freed to support children and boost the economy. In addition, the climate and environmental crises is significantly impacting children, with nearly half of the world’s children (about 1 billion) living in countries that face high risks of climate and environmental hazards. Children’s developing bodies are uniquely susceptible to these hazards. For example, air pollution can impact children’s respiratory health and development, which can have lifelong impacts. Water contamination from floods can lead to waterborne diseases, which are a major cause of death for children under five years of age. Climate-related disasters can also cause feelings of helplessness, trauma and anxiety in children. Furthermore, frontier technologies, including artificial intelligence (AI), can benefit children. It can enable them to create, learn and connect with friends while laying the foundation for their future economic prospects. However, it can also expose them to online risks, including sexual exploitation and abuse. And many children cannot access these digital opportunities at all.
- Children in the world of 2050: The report delves into the potential impacts on children if a ‘business-as-usual’ pathway is taken, which assumes a continuation of current trends. The potential impacts are categorised into seven issues: 1) child survival and life expectancy, which will see a continuation of historic drops in newborn and child mortality; 2) climate and environmental hazards, which will see significantly more children exposed to extreme climate hazards compared to the 2000s. For instance, approximately 8 times more children are projected to be exposed to extreme heatwaves; 3) socioeconomic conditions, which will see a significant growth in the numbers of children living in today’s low-income countries in 2050; 4) education, which will see children’s access to education continue to increase; 5) gender equality, which will see many children projected to live in societies with considerable levels of gender inequality in the 2050s, particularly in Eastern and Southern Africa and West and Central Africa; 6) conflict exposure, which will see fewer children projected to live in areas with a high risk of prolonged subnational conflict at the global level. However, in Eastern and Southern Africa, the number of children at risk of facing prolonged subnational conflict is projected to increase; and 7) urbanisation, which will see many more children living in cities in the coming decades, with nearly 60% of children globally projected to live in urban settings in the 2050s, up from 44% in the 2000s.
- Urgent action is needed in three key areas: UNICEF recommends that governments, businesses, non-governmental and human rights organisations, and civil society take action in three key areas: 1) prepare for demographic shifts. Measures includes investing in early childhood, primary and secondary education; expanding shock-responsive social protection systems; and ensuring access to maternal, newborn, child and adolescent healthcare, along with sexual and reproductive health and family planning services; 2) invest in climate and environmental adaptation, mitigation and education. Measures include ensuring children’s needs are addressed in climate strategies, National Adaptation Plans, and Nationally Determined Contributions; investing in renewable energy and promoting solutions to cut emissions by 43% by 2030; implementing large-scale ecosystem restoration and sustainable land management practices; and strengthening waste management and combatting pollution; and 3) deliver connectivity and safe design for every child. Measures include adopting ethical guidelines for technology development, focusing on privacy, data protection and accountability, as well as implementing rights-based governance for new technologies, with oversight mechanisms to anticipate risks.
