The Systems Change Lab published State of Climate Action 2025 (October 2025) which assesses the global gap in climate action across key sectors —power, buildings, industry, transport, forests and land, and food and agriculture — to help limit global warming to 1.5°C. It also translates this temperature goal into sector-specific targets for 2030, 2035 and 2050.
Human Level’s Take:
- As COP30 approaches, the world is off-track to meet climate goals. The highest-emitting sectors require the most urgent action, including power, buildings, industry, transport, forests and land, and food/agriculture. Together they accounted for 86% of global GHG emissions in 2023.
- Some areas show rapid gains, like private climate finance, solar, green hydrogen, electric vehicles and reforestation, but these remain isolated and insufficient for system-wide transformation.
- Out of 45 climate indicators, none are fully on track for 2030 targets. Six show modest progress, 29 need at least two- to fourfold acceleration, and five are worsening. Some indicators (e.g., fossil fuel finance, steel emissions, deforestation, car use and food waste) are moving in the wrong direction entirely.
- Sectoral acceleration is urgently needed. For example, coal phase-out must be 10 times faster (around 360 plants per year), solar and wind growth must double to 29% annually, public transit construction must quintuple (about 1,400 km per year), and deforestation must be cut ninefold. In addition, carbon capture facilities must expand 10 times faster, and global climate finance must increase by $1 trillion/year until 2030 — roughly two-thirds of 2023 public fossil fuel finance — to stay within 1.5°C pathways.
- It’s time for companies in high-emitting sectors and sourcing from these sectors to step up. The bright spots identified by the report show that progress is possible, with alignment from the private and public sector. Steps such as creating climate transition plans and working to reduce supply chain emissions are important, as well as responsible lobbying with governments to set — and meet — ambitious climate goals and create an enabling environment for private sector action.
Some key takeaways:
- Falling behind on climate goals: Taken together, power, buildings, industry, transport, forests and land, and food and agriculture accounted for 86% of global GHG emissions in 2023. Waste and upstream energy emissions, such as from fossil fuel extraction and oil refining, make up the other 14%. But the Systems Change Lab finds that efforts across these sectors are too short of what’s needed to limit warming. In 2024, global temperatures reached 1.55°C for the first time, signaling that the world is rapidly approaching the Paris Agreement limit of 1.5°C. Delays in climate action make avoiding even a brief overshoot increasingly unlikely, and staying within 1.5°C requires unprecedented systemic transformations and large-scale carbon removal. Some areas show potential for rapid progress, specifically significant increases in private climate finance, record growth in solar, gains in green hydrogen, and reforestation. However, these remain isolated cases and won’t by themselves get us to the system-wide changes needed to close the emissions gap for 1.5°C.
- Indicators are off-track for 2030: The report looks at 45 indicators of climate progress. Most of the indicators show progress, but none are on track for 2030 targets aligned with 1.5°C. Six are improving at a promising but insufficient pace, 29 are far behind and need at least a two- to fourfold acceleration, and five are moving in the wrong direction altogether. Some promising indicators include a signifiant increase in private climate finance from $870 billion in 2022 to $1.3 trillion in 2023; individual consumers, businesses and institutional investors, especially in China and Western Europe, are responsible for these gains. In addition, electric vehicles sales are up, especially in China, which is the largest consumer and manufacturer of electric vehicles. Reforestation is also on the rise. Some indicators are moving in the right direction but are well off-track, for example emissions intensity of global cement production and agriculture, the share of social and wind in electricity generation, deforestation, meat consumption and public climate finance. Other indicators are moving in the wrong direction. For example, public finance for fossil fuels has increased by an average of $75 billion per year since 2014, and CO2 emissions per tonne of crude steel produced increased over the last five years. In addition, the share of trips taken by passenger cars has increased, mangrove loss has accelerated, and food waste is up.
- What’s needed now: Every sector needs to accelerate climate goals, and quickly. As COP 30 approaches, countries and companies alike will need to make significant commitments to decarbonise sectors. The report outlines key action areas. Coal generation must be phased out over 10 times faster (the equivalent of about 360 average coal plants per year) yet ongoing plans for new plants make this increasingly difficult. A rapid increase in solar and wind power is also needed; while their share of electricity generation has increased by an average 13% per year since 2020, growth rates will need to double to 29% to be on track for 2030. Additionally, construction of affordable and reliable public transit systems needs to happen five times faster by building at least 1,400 km of new transit routes every year until 2030. Deforestation needs to be decreased nine times faster: in 2024, we lost the equivalent of nearly 22 football fields of forest every minute. In addition, carbon capture facilities should be scaled up 10 times faster and global climate finance will need to be increased by nearly $1 trillion per year until 2030—equal to about two-thirds of public fossil fuel finance in 2023.
