The risks and opportunities of geoeconomic and technology shifts for business

The World Economic Forum (WEF) published its white paper on Four Futures for the New Economy: Geoeconomics and Technology in 2030 as part of its Scenarios for the Global Economy Dialogue Series (December 2025). This paper builds on the perspectives of chief strategy officers to explore how the interaction between two critical forces - geoeconomics and technology - could shape the global economy by 2030. It outlines four distinct scenarios for 2030 and analyses key risks, opportunities and strategy implications for businesses across these different scenarios. It also offers a set of “no-regret” moves that could help businesses prepare today for any of these scenarios.

Human Level’s Take:

• Geoeconomic and technological shifts are creating both risks and opportunities for businesses and are expected to reshape corporate strategies and the global economy over the next five years
• WEF’s latest survey of chief strategy officers identifies the two main trends impacting business strategies as the commercialisation of AI and emerging technologies (72% of respondents) and geoeconomic fragmentation (52% of respondents)
• The report outlines four scenarios for the global economy by 2030, based on geopolitical conditions and technology adoption:
  
  • Digitalised Order: geopolitical stability with rapid, widespread technology adoption
  • Cautious Stability: geopolitical stability with slow, concentrated technology adoption
  • Tech-based Survival: geopolitical volatility with rapid, widespread technology adoption
  • Geotechnical Spheres: geopolitical volatility with slow, concentrated technology adoption
• Key people-related risks and opportunities include job displacement and growing skills mismatches driven by technological change and escalating geopolitical conflict and the weaponisation of access to critical technologies and supply chains
• Companies can prepare by:
  
  • Anticipating and adapting to the societal and economic impacts of AI adoption
  • Investing in workforce reskilling and upskilling
  • Strengthening infrastructure and governance to support rapid technological change
• So what can companies do? Companies have opportunities to prepare today by focusing on nine core areas irrespective of the scenario. These are:
  
  • Focus on core operations, long-term priorities, financial resilience, and risk management
  • Develop dedicated geopolitical function and intelligence
  • Strengthen foresight capabilities by harnessing big data, predictive analytics and real-time feedback loops to interpret early signals
  • Invest in supply chain resilience, agility, and real-time monitoring
  • Adopt, scale, and govern emerging technologies aligned with operational priorities
  • Strengthen critical physical and digital infrastructure, including cybersecurity, data, transport and energy
  • Implement agile capital allocation and dynamic financial planning models
  • Align technology adoption with human capital development and workforce engagement
  • Deepen strategic partnerships, alliances, and public-private collaboration
    

Some key takeaways:

• Geoeconomics and technology shifts will reshape business strategies and the global economy: There is heightened uncertainty in the global economy amid weak growth, complex geoeconomics, and fast-changing technologies such as AI, robotics and autonomous systems. These trends create both new growth opportunities and risks. The WEF’s latest survey of chief strategy officers cited commercialisation of AI and emerging technologies (72% of respondents) and geoeconomics fragmentation (52% of respondents) as the main global trends impacting business strategies over the next five years. The report outlines four scenarios for the future of the global economy based on potential trajectories of the geopolitical context and technology adoption vectors by 2030 (see diagram below):
  • Scenario 1: Digitalised Order (i.e., geopolitical stability, fast and widespread technological adoption). In this scenario, geopolitical stabilisation and rapid technological adoption have restored growth levels across sectors and geographies, but also created new challenges. Despite the recovery of trade and investment flows, domestic tensions remain acute in many countries as labour market disruptions and risks of technology misuse increase
  • Scenario 2: Cautious Stability (i.e., geopolitical stability, slow and concentrated technological adoption). In this scenario, geopolitical normalisation has lowered risk premiums and reduced price shocks, but growth remains stagnant as technology fails to deliver expected economic impacts. Adoption of frontier technologies has been limited to a few sectors and industry leaders across the world and has not had a significant impact on wages and jobs
  • Scenario 3: Tech-based Survival (i.e., geopolitical volatility, fast and widespread technological adoption). In this scenario, widespread technology adoption and geopolitical volatility have created a world where technological opportunities are vast, but trust, coordination and stability are in short supply. Businesses use digitalization to offset the costs of geopolitical disruptions, creating both new opportunities and material risks
  • Scenario 4: Geotechnical Spheres (i.e., geopolitical volatility, slow and concentrated technological adoption). As geopolitical volatility continues to rise, countries have turned isolationist and are limiting trade to their closest allies, while fading technology hype creates room for disillusionment. Asset prices slump and growth rates stall or turn negative. Domestically, labour markets become less polarized as businesses look to reshore jobs and technology, but face significant talent shortages
    

• Implications for human rights: Among other business, economic, and supply chain risks and opportunities, the rapidly evolving geopolitical context, AI and emerging technologies carry risks and opportunities for people. One key risk is that technology-driven developments across industries and geographies can lead to job displacement and growing talent mismatch and shortages. Another key risk is that there is an escalation of conflicts and access to key technologies and supply chains are weaponised. Companies can prepare by anticipating and adapting to the societal and economic implications of rapid AI adoption, including investments in reskilling and upskilling of workers, as well as the development of infrastructure and governance.
  

• How businesses can prepare today for any scenario: The report outlines key areas of focus that can help businesses mitigate risks and capture new opportunities from geopolitical and technology developments - irrespective of which scenario emerges:
  • Strengthen core operations: Focus on core operations and long-term priorities, streamline cost structures and workflows, and improve financial health and risk management
  • Develop geopolitical function and intelligence: Develop a dedicated function to analyse geopolitical risks, supply chain exposure, regulatory fragmentation and market access constraints
  • Strengthen foresight- and data-driven decision-making: Establish a foresight function with a related data infrastructure and agile governance. Harness big data, predictive analytics and real-time feedback loops to interpret early signals and enable iterative and forward-looking strategy design
  • Invest in supply chain resilience and agility: Balance supply chain localisation and diversification strategies, and omnishore and nearshore critical supply chains to limit key dependencies and mitigate supply chain disruptions across the different scenarios. Invest in real-time monitoring, digital twins and AI-enabled optimisation
  • Invest in adopting and scaling emerging technologies: Develop technological leadership and innovation sandboxes. Align technology developments with operational priorities and invest in technology governance to keep up with - and shape - the frontier of AI and technological advancement
  • Strengthen critical infrastructure: Invest in efficient, reliable and scalable physical and digital infrastructure. This includes integrating infrastructure monitoring and upgrades into core strategy, investing in cybersecurity and resilience in critical areas like data, transport and energy
  • Develop agile capital allocation models: Develop dynamic financial planning and portfolio management strategies, build capital reserves and mechanisms for fast reallocation of resources across projects, functions and markets
  • Align technology and human capital development: Engage workers in innovation and automation processes, and invest in workforce upskilling, reskilling and mobility. This helps to address talent gaps, augment workers in technology adoption, and build trust
  • Deepen strategic partnerships and alliances: Deepen strategic alliances, strengthen public-private collaboration, and develop partnerships with peers to share best practices, draw on external expertise and collaborate on shared challenges and frameworks