The UN Environment Programme (UNEP) released its 2025 Emissions Gap Report (November 2025), detailing the status of the gap between current emissions and emissions reduction pledged under the Paris Agreement.
Human Level’s Take:
- The Paris Agreement has lowered projected warming from nearly 4°C to below 3°C and spurred renewable energy growth, net-zero pledges and stronger climate policies — but action still falls short of Paris goals.
- Emissions continue to break records: global GHG emissions hit 57.7 GtCO₂e in 2024, up 2.3% from 2023, driven by fossil fuels, deforestation, and land-use change. And most of the damage is coming from the largest economies, with the G20 accounting for 77% of total emissions.
- When it comes to new country commitments to reduce emissions through Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), only 64 countries have submitted new NDCs. What’s more, most of these lack ambition on 2030 targets, fossil fuel reduction and climate finance, leaving the 2035 emissions gap largely unchanged.
- Every fraction of a degree counts. Stronger near-term mitigation could cut projected warming by up to 0.9°C, while even small temperature increases compound climate damages, risks to life and health, and the likelihood of tipping points.
- If COP30 negotiators succeed in making this the “implementation COP” — as pledged by the Brazilian COP presidency — we could see opportunities for accelerated, more ambitious action with benefits for everyone. After all, faster emission cuts can drive jobs, energy security, and sustainable growth.
- Achieving this demands unprecedented global cooperation, financial reform and support for developing countries. Companies can play their part by implementing ambitious near-term and long-term emissions reduction plans, investing in technology and other fixes that reduce emissions, and advocating for a fast, fair climate transition that brings along workers and local communities.
Some key takeaways:
- Some progress since 2015, but no time to lose: According to UNEP, the Paris Agreement has significantly reduced projected global warming and accelerated renewable energy adoption, net-zero pledges and climate policies. Since 2015, global warming projections have fallen from nearly 4°C to under 3°C, and from 3–3.5°C to 2.3–2.5°C based on Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) — country plans to limit emissions. About 70% of global emissions are now covered by countries’ 2050 net-zero pledges, up from none in 2015. In addition, advances in governance, policy and low-carbon technologies have improved global readiness for stronger action. However, urgency remains high. New NDCs submitted this year only modestly narrow the 2030–2035 emissions gap, keeping projected warming above Paris goals. Limiting warming to 1.5°C by 2100 is still technically feasible but we would still experience temporary overshoot beyond this temperature in the intervening years. The speed of lowering emissions matters: continued delays worsen costs of climate mitigation and adaptation, lock in high-emission infrastructure, and make achieving net zero by 2050 far more difficult and expensive.
- Emissions are increasing to record levels and country commitments are not ambitious enough: We are continuing to break emissions records. Global greenhouse gas emissions hit a record 57.7 GtCO₂e in 2024, rising 2.3% from 2023. Emissions grew across all major sectors and gases, with deforestation and land-use change responsible for over half of the total increase. Emissions from global net land use, land-use change and forestry rose by 21% in 2024, driving much of the surge. G20 nations (excluding the African Union) accounted for 77% of global emissions, with most showing increases. India and China saw the largest absolute rises, Indonesia the fastest growth in emissions, and the EU was the only major emitter to record a decline. To combat these rises, ambitious NDCs are essential, however new and updated NDCs remain far too weak to meet Paris Agreement goals. By September 2024, only 64 countries (covering 63% of global emissions) had submitted or announced new NDCs, with very few strengthening 2030 targets. While most include renewable energy goals, other areas remain limited and vague, including commitments on energy efficiency, fossil fuel reduction and climate finance. G20 countries are not collectively on track to meet even their current NDCs, and although new pledges slightly narrow the 2035 emissions gap, it remains large. This puts global progress far from the pathways consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C or 2°C.
- Any amount of mitigation matters: Global temperature projections have only slightly improved since last year, underscoring the urgency of immediate mitigation. Strengthening action from current policies to conditional NDCs (which include actions that countries can take only if they receive international support) could lower projected warming by 0.5°C, and fully achieving all net-zero pledges could reduce it by another 0.4°C. The most optimistic scenario—full implementation of conditional NDCs and net-zero pledges—would limit warming to about 1.9°C (range 1.8–2.3°C), which is unchanged from last year. That said, any amount of mitigation will be important. Every fraction of a degree matters, as higher temperatures sharply increase damage from climate-driven weather, risks to life and health, and the chance of triggering irreversible tipping points. Accelerated mitigation offers economic and social benefits, but achieving it requires stronger global cooperation, support for developing countries, and systemic financial reform. According to UNEP, these commitments are not yet evident in current NDCs or based on current global cooperation. If the COP30 meetings yield promising advances, we could be closer to meeting Paris Agreement goals while limiting harm to both people and the planet.
