Our key takeaway: In its latest data on weather trends, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has reported sobering information: not only are we on track to exceed 1.5°C above preindustrial levels for at least one year between 2023-2027, we are also 98% likely to experience the warmest temperature on record and the warmest five year temperature average. WMO’s word: “Note that the 1.5°C level specified in the Paris Agreement refers to long- term warming over many years, but temporary exceedances are expected to occur with increasing frequency as global temperatures approach the long-term threshold.” Nearly 12,000 extreme weather, climate and water-related events have occurred over the past 50 years, causing more than 2 million people to lose their lives and resulting in USD 4.3 trillion of economic losses. In developing countries and small-island developing states, the number of deaths and dollar amount of damage has been “disproportionately” high, reflecting the extent to which marginalised populations continue to bear the brunt of the worst effects of climate change. It’s time to pay very very very serious attention to companies’ role in contributing to climate change - as well as its role in tackling it.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has released new climate data in its Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update Target years: 2023 and 2023-2027 (May 2023) and as part of its database Atlas of Mortality and Economic Losses from Weather, Climate and Water-related Hazards:
- Increased warming and changing precipitation patterns: Temperatures on land and at sea continue to increase. According to WMO, “[g]lobal temperatures are likely to increase to record levels in the five-year period 2023-2027 and stay well above the 1991-2020 reference. Annual mean global near-surface temperature for each year in this five-year period is predicted to be between 1.1°C and 1.8°C.” This means that “[t]he chance of global near-surface temperature exceeding 1.5°C above preindustrial levels for at least one year between 2023 and 2027 is more likely than not (66%)” and is increasing over time, although it is unlikely that the average over five years will exceed this threshold. This is significant because, although “the 1.5°C level specified in the Paris Agreement refers to long-term warming over many years … temporary exceedances are expected to occur with increasing frequency as global temperatures approach the long-term threshold.” To this end, there is a 98% chance that at least one year between 2023-2027 will exceed the warmest year on record (2016). In addition, there is a 98% chance that the five-year mean for 2022-2026 will be higher than the mean for the previous five years. WMO also predicts that precipitation patterns will continue to diverge from the norm, with “wetter than average conditions at high latitudes in the northern hemisphere for the next five extended winter seasons” and “reduced precipitation in the subtropics.”
- A trend of severe social and economic impacts: Nearly 12,000 extreme weather, climate and water-related events have occurred over the past 50 years, causing more than 2 million people to lose their lives and resulting in USD 4.3 trillion of economic losses. In this time period, flood-related disasters have been most common (45% of all reported disasters), but tropical cyclones have caused the highest number of deaths and greatest economic losses. Asia experienced the most of both floods and tropical cyclones. Over the last decade, the highest cause of death has been due to extreme temperatures, followed by floods, droughts, severe storms and landslides. The highest economic losses over the past decade are attributed to storms, followed by floods, drought, wildfire and extreme temperature.
- Worst effects on least developed countries and marginalised communities: WMO Secretary-General Petteri Taalas said that “[t]he most vulnerable communities unfortunately bear the brunt of weather, climate and water-related hazards.” WMO reported that that Least Developed Countries and Small Island Developing States suffered a “disproportionately” high cost in relation to the size of their economies. Specifically, developing countries accounted for 91% of deaths and 71% of disasters over the last decade. While 60% of economic losses were suffered by developed countries, “the economic losses were equivalent to less than 0.1% of the gross domestic product (GDP) in respective economies in more than four fifths of these disasters.” By contrast, “[I]n Least Developed Countries, 7% of disasters for which economic losses were reported had an impact equivalent to more than 5% of the respective GDPs, with several disasters causing economic losses up to nearly 30%. In Small Island Developing States, 20% of disasters with reported economic losses led to an impact equivalent to more than 5% of the respective GDPs, with some disasters causing economic losses above 100%.”
